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06/07/2010 - Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The next chapter in NASCAR's "boys, have at it" story of the season was written on Sunday at Pocono Raceway, with Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick re-igniting their feud.
While Logano's teammate, Denny Hamlin, drove into victory lane at Pocono for the fourth time in his career, Logano and Harvick faced off on pit road after the two tangled in the closing laps.
Harvick bumped Logano and put him into a spin while the two were battling for the fifth position with less than two laps remaining. The incident set up a green-white-checkered finish. Logano charged through the field during the two- lap overtime finish to salvage a 13th-place finish.
After Logano's pit crew tried to simmer down their 20-year-old driver during his cool-down lap, Logano parked his car right next to Harvick's ride and then proceeded to have a shouting match with the current Sprint Cup Series points leader.
Harvick's crew members blocked Logano from getting face to face with their driver, as NASCAR officials intervened to prevent a post-race brawl. Logano's father, Tom, also partook in the confrontation.
A generally calm and easy-going Logano expressed his ire towards Harvick during an interview with television network TNT.
"I don't know what his problem is with me, but it's probably not his fault; his wife wears the fire suit in the family and tells him what to do," Logano said.
Harvick finished fourth and left Pocono with a 19-point advantage over Kyle Busch, who also is Logano's teammate at Joe Gibbs Racing.
"I got into him there going into [turn] three, and he just races with not giving people any respect and not much room," Harvick said. "So we just wound up getting together. It's unfortunate, but that's the way it goes."
It's not the first time Logano and Harvick have butted heads. In March, Harvick bumped Logano on the final lap of the Nationwide Series race at Bristol. Logano, who ended up finishing 14th, tried to confront Harvick on pit road, but his JGR crew kept him distant from Harvick.
It's obvious that Logano and Harvick are not the best of friends these days.
I don't know what I ever did to [tick] him off, but he is apparently stupid," Logano added.
Following his argument with Harvick at Pocono, NASCAR officials summoned Logano and his father to the sanctioning body's hauler for a post-race chat.
"I think we probably missed the fire that's inside of Joey," team owner Joe Gibbs said. "You're talking about somebody we signed when he was 15, and we kind of watched him race at different places. I think he does have a real fire. Now, he controls himself. He's somebody that rarely gets out of control. But I definitely think he's got a real passion for what he does. It means a lot to him."
Tom Logano has been in trouble with NASCAR in the past. Logano had his NASCAR annual credential (hard card) taken away after his involvement in a post-race skirmish between Joey Logano and Greg Biffle in a Nationwide event last October in Fontana, CA.
Maybe it's time for daddy Logano to start letting his son - now out of his teens - handle his own problems. Makes you wonder who's wearing the younger Logano's fire suit, doesn't it?
<< Former UMass standout joins Toronto Argonauts
Mississauga, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Massachusetts tailback Tony Nelson
signed with the Toronto Argonauts of the Canadian Football League in time for
the start of the team's training camp.
Nelson, a two-time All-CAA Football selection,
<< Flyers counting on another comeback
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While walking around Philadelphia's
Wachovia Center in the hours leading up to Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals,
it became clear to me that the Flyers organization and their fans are not big
on subtlety.
<< Culpepper signs with UFL's Sacramento club
Sacramento, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former NFL quarterback Daunte Culpepper has
signed with the United Football League's Sacramento Mountain Lions.
The move will re-unite Culpepper with Dennis Green, who was Culpepper's head
coach with the
<< La Salle agrees to multi-year contract with Giannini
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - La Salle and head men's basketball coach
John Giannini have agreed to a multi-year contract. Details of the agreement
were not released.
Giannini's Explorers teams have gone 83-97 in six seasons, inc
Near perfect game gives Galarraga AL weekly honor >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Detroit Tigers pitcher Armando Galarraga,
who had a perfect game taken away on a blown call on what would have been the
final out, has been named the American League Player of the Week for the
period
Martinez happy to see Cleveland >>
CLEVELAND (AP) -Leading his 5-year-old son by the hand, Victor Martinez returned to a place where he had some of the best years of his life.Martinez was back in Cleveland on Monday, returning to his former major league home for the first time since
Bagged! Hall to get base, spikes of Galarraga gem >>
The Hall of Fame has bagged the key evidence from Armando Galarraga's stolen perfect game.The Detroit Tigers have told the Hall they will donate the first-base bag, Galarraga's spikes and a ball from last week's near-miss at Comerica Park.A blown ca
Celtics hold onto ball, steal home-court in finals >>
BOSTON (AP) -The Celtics were able to hold on in Game 2 because they held onto the ball.Boston committed 12 turnovers in the first half and just two in the second in Sunday night's 103-94 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers. The win evened the best-
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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