Inter Milan brass taking massive gamble with Balotelli sale

Soccer Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With reports surfacing that Inter Milan are prepared to transfer Mario Balotelli to Manchester City for a fee in the range of 30 million Euros, the young star's tumultuous time with the club seems to be at an end.

The 19-year-old Balotelli is a supremely gifted player with the ability to use his strength and quickness to elude opponents and create quality scoring opportunities. Even at a young age, the skill set the young Italian possesses is of an elite nature.

Should Balotelli continue to progress, he could eventually become one of the best players in the world, a factor that makes his sale a reluctant one for Inter. It should be noted that Inter does not need to sell Balotelli at this point as a result of any financial constraints - they're choosing to because of issues with his character.

While Balotelli does possess top-level skill, his mental stability and petulant behavior has caused concerns in Milan, so much so that some fellow teammates reportedly want to see him removed from the team's roster. Spats with Inter fans and former coach Jose Mourinho are well-documented, while his appearance on national television wearing heated rival AC Milan's jersey did not sit well with Inter supporters, to say the least.

So intense were his issues with Mourinho that he was benched for long stretches throughout the season, the last for throwing his jersey on the ground after fans booed him for a poor display in a Champions League match against Barcelona.

Balotelli is without question lacking maturity at this point in his career, yet it didn't stop some of the top clubs in Europe from inquiring about his services. The growing pains for Balotelli have been a constant throughout his career, but were not surprising given that he's been under the microscope since the age of 17.

His conflicts with coaches and fellow players are alarming, but will likely lessen once Balotelli matures in age and is taken under the wing by an established soccer mind. Balotelli's former Inter coach and current Manchester boss Roberto Mancini seems adept at taking on such a challenge and it's one that could reap huge benefits for both Balotelli and Mancini.

Considering his age, the risk of bringing in Balotelli from a Manchester City point-of-view is minimal, and the club's new owners have declared they'll spend whatever money is necessary to compete in the English Premier League, along with contending in other European competitions.

The risk is much greater for Inter, considering the club's reputation in parts of Italy. With a roster boasting very few Italian players, the sale of Balotelli will likely not sit well with purists who believe Italian clubs should groom their own home-grown players over foreigners. While the sale amount of 30 million Euros is nothing to groan about, if Balotelli is able to put both his mental and physical game together, he will likely be worth double that amount in a few short years.

With Rafa Benitez taking over the club from departed manager Jose Mourinho, the opportunity is there for a fresh start for Balotelli at Inter. The Spanish manager has the chance to instill a vote of confidence in the young star that he felt was waning with Mourinho. Whether or not Balotelli has burned too many bridges over the last few seasons to make that possibility a reality is questionable at this point. One thing that's not in question is Balotelli's skill set, but whether he takes advantage of such talent is squarely on the shoulders of the young Italian himself.

It's said that patience is a virtue and, in the case of Balotelli, it could prove either a catastrophic risk or magnificent judgement. At this point, it seems to be a 50-50 proposition but one that could see Manchester City benefit much more than Inter Milan, should the sale go through.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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