Happ's Houston debut a gem as Astros down punchless Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - J.A. Happ pitched six scoreless innings in his Houston debut, as the Astros handled the Milwaukee Brewers, 5-0, in the opener of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.

Happ (2-0) and minor leaguers Jonathan Villar and Anthony Gose were acquired by Houston from the Phillies on Thursday in exchange for workhorse starter Roy Oswalt. Happ gave up just two hits, struck out six, and walked four to take the win.

Jason Michaels, Chris Johnson and Jeff Keppinger homered for the Astros, who have won three in a row.

Manny Parra (3-8) went 5 1/3 innings in the start, allowing four runs on four hits for the Brewers, who have dropped three in a row. He also fanned six batters and walked three to drop his third straight decision.

The Brewers failed to score off Happ after putting men on first and second. Rickie Weeks doubled to begin the game and Corey Hart walked. Happ, though, retired the next three batters in order to end the threat.

Michaels' solo blast in the second would prove to be all the runs Houston would need.

After Milwaukee stranded men on first and second in the top of the fourth, the Astros put a three-spot on the board in the home half. With two outs, Michaels walked and Pedro Feliz singled. Johnson then smacked a three-run homer over the wall in right for a 4-0 advantage.

Keppinger's solo homer off the left-field foul pole in the eighth made it a 5-0 game.

Wilton Lopez, Brandon Lyon and Matt Lindstrom combined to pitch a scoreless seventh, eighth and ninth, respectively, for Houston.

Game Notes

The Astros lead the season series with the Brewers, 4-3...Following the trade on Thursday, the Astros then made a second deal, sending Gose to Toronto for minor league first baseman Brett Wallace...Johnson extended his hitting streak to 13 games, the longest by a Houston rookie since Julio Lugo's 14-game run in 2000...Hart went 0-for-3 with a walk in his return to the lineup. He played for the first time in six games after missing time due to a sore right thumb and wrist...Milwaukee started a six-game road trip on Friday...The New York Yankees are reportedly set to acquire Lance Berkman from the Astros. Berkman was not in the starting lineup for Houston on Friday...Oswalt made his Philadelphia debut on Friday against the Nationals. The right-hander allowed five runs -- four earned -- on seven hits and walked two in six innings to absorb his third straight loss.

Wwsbgglobal Baseball Betting News

<< Stammen strong, so are Nats' bats as Oswalt's Philly debut a dud
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Willingham and Roger Bernadina both stroked a two-run double to back a solid outing by Craig Stammen, as Washington cooled off the surging Phillies, 8-1, and, in doing so, spoiled Roy Oswalt'

<< Bradford inks record deal with Rams
Earth City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis Rams quarterback and 2010 top overall draft choice Sam Bradford has reportedly agreed to a six-year deal that is worth a record $50 million in guarantees. According to the St. Louis Post-

<< Bautista continues grand season, lifts Jays over Tribe
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Bautista's grand slam and league-leading 31st home run highlighted a six-run fourth, as the Toronto Blue Jays won their fourth straight with an 8-1 rout of the struggling Cleveland Indians at Rogers Centre.

<< Joyce's homer lifts Rays over Yankees; A-Rod held homerless
St. Petersburg, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Joyce hit a three-run homer in the sixth inning, lifting the Tampa Bay Rays to a 3-2 win over the New York Yankees in the opener of a critical three-game series. The Rays entered the serie

<< Cavs sign G/F Graham
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Cavaliers have signed guard/forward Joey Graham. The 6-foot-7 Graham played in 63 games for Denver last season, starting 18, and averaged 4.2 points and two rebounds per game. He

Eagles acquire RB Arrington from Broncos >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles acquired running back J.J. Arrington from the Denver Broncos in exchange for linebacker Joe Mays. The Eagles will receive a conditional draft pick in 2012 if Arrington does no

Diamondbacks power past Mets to snap seven-game slide >>
Flushing, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kelly Johnson hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the sixth and Miguel Montero tacked on a three-run shot later in the frame to help the Diamondbacks snap a seven-game slide with a 9-6 win over the Mets. Montero

Atlanta's Heyward comes through in extras in Cincy >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jayson Heyward delivered the game-winning two-run double in the 10th inning as Atlanta upended Cincinnati, 6-4, in the first of a three-game set. Brian McCann homered and Chipper Jones added two hits,

Harrell wins MLB debut as White Sox extend home win streak >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gordon Beckham had two hits and drove in two runs to support six solid innings from Lucas Harrell in his major league debut as Chicago downed Oakland, 6-1, in the opener of a three-game set. Harrell (1-0),

Peralta homers twice in Tigers debut; Detroit tops Boston >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jhonny Peralta hit a pair of homers and drove in three in his Tigers debut, as Detroit held on against Boston's furious ninth- inning rally for a 6-5 decision in the first of three between the clubs at Fenway

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.

Problem with Bears?

Chicago, IL - New Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and star linebacker Brian Urlacher shot down reports of a rift, saying they're simply not true.

"There's nothing between us," Cutler said Thursday, when he reported to training camp. "I just want to put that to rest. There never has been anything between us."

Bet on NFL

Urlacher added: "I never said what I was quoted as saying and that's it. I have a lot of respect for Jay. I think Jay knows that."
Former Bears receiver Bobby Wade caused a stir when he told Minneapolis radio station KFAN-AM that Urlacher used a profanity while questioning Cutler's manhood during a conversation in Las Vegas last weekend. Wade, who now plays for the Vikings, said Urlacher used a profane version of the word "wimp" during the interview that had to be edited out.
go radio station WSCR-AM also reported that Urlacher had to be restrained from confronting Cutler during organized team activities.
"I wouldn't go face-to-face with Brian, anyway," Cutler said. "No, that's never happened. I've hung out with Brian away from the facility numerous times and we've always gotten along."
Urlacher, noting he was limited by a groin injury, denied the reports in an interview with the Chicago Tribune and did it again when he reported to camp.
"I didn't practice this summer, so I don't know how I would fight the guy if I didn't practice," Urlacher said. "We have no problems. I'm excited about football starting. I'm excited to have him as our quarterback."
Why would Wade say that?
"I don't know," Urlacher said. "Maybe he's jealous because we have a good quarterback now."
Cutler said the first he heard of any friction was when he got a call from Urlacher to clear the air. Urlacher, however, said he had already taken several calls from teammates wondering if the reports were true when Cutler phoned.
"He called me and I said, What's up (expletive), what are you doing?'" a grinning Urlacher said, uttering the same word he allegedly used with Wade. "It's so dumb to me that this even got to this point, but it did and then here we are."
better place after going 9-7 and missing the playoffs for the second straight year. They have a franchise quarterback for the first time in decades after acquiring Cutler in an offseason trade with Denver. But there are questions about his attitude following a fallout with Broncos management and new coach Josh McDaniels.
His critics include former Bears coach Mike Ditka and former Indianapolis and Tampa Bay coach Tony Dungy, one of Smith's mentors. Smith, however, said Cutler has been a model teammate so far while denying any animosity with Urlacher.
"There's no issue with Jay and Brian, except Brian and Jay are both excited about being teammates for our club this year," coach Lovie Smith said. "No more than that. We can't spend a whole lot of time on something that isn't true. I have talked to the players. Whenever something comes out, you have to address it, but it's a non-issue."
In some ways, Cutler is getting a second chance in Chicago, an opportunity to repair his reputation.
Smith said another quarterback - Michael Vick - deserves one, although he doesn't see it happening with the Bears, who lack an experienced backup. The former Atlanta Falcons star, who served a 23-month sentence for running a dogfighting ring, said Thursday he is getting close to signing with a pro football team.
"A second chance, like everyone in society who has paid their debt to society," Smith said. "He deserves a second chance. As far as we're concerned, we like this team that we have right now."
Particularly the new quarterback.
"Me and Brian have been on a good relationship since I've been here, and I expect it to continue that way," Cutler said.

Bet on NFL

Mysportsbook.com online online sportsbook accepts Visa & Mastercard