CAA Football teams find it hard to catch breath

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Quarterback Pat Devlin doesn't care if an opponent on Delaware's CAA Football schedule is from the north or the south. He says they could even come from the east or west, if that were possible.

No matter the direction, there rarely is a break for any CAA team in the FCS' premier conference.

"They put the teams on your schedule and you've got to go out and play 'em," Devlin said.

Devlin's positive, business-like approach isn't embraced as much by others within the CAA who are gulping over what lies ahead this season. After the conference lost two of its lower-tier programs following last season - when Northeastern and Hofstra dropped the sport - the conference dropped from two six-team divisions to one 10-team alignment. And, oh, are there now even fewer chances for a team to catch its breath than in past seasons.

Underscoring the CAA's success is the fact its teams have appeared in six of the last seven FCS championship games, and Delaware (2003), James Madison (2004), Richmond (2008) and Villanova (last season) have won titles during the big run of success. Massachusetts won in 1998.

The conference is so strong that Richmond was picked in the Top 10 nationally of at least five preseason media polls, yet was selected only sixth in the CAA's preseason poll of head coaches and sports information directors. That poll was released yesterday at the conference's media day at M&T Bank Stadium, and the brutally tough top five is led by defending national champion Villanova, followed by William & Mary, New Hampshire, James Madison and Devlin's Delaware squad.

Second-year program Old Dominion, which enters next year, and first-year program Georgia State, which follows in 2012, probably can't arrive fast enough for the rest of the conference.

"It's a league that has a lot of talent," Villanova coach Andy Talley said. "You've got to show up; you just have to show up and know that any of those teams have the ability on any given day to beat you. I love our league. The coaching is as good as it's ever been. So you're going to be challenged every week."

As in past seasons, CAA teams will continue to play eight conference games - not the possible nine. But the loss of Hofstra (5-6, 3-5 last season) and Northeastern (3-8, 3-5) from the former North Division will be felt, especially if a team faces injuries to key players during the heart of their conference schedule.

Delaware has played two of the toughest schedules in the FCS over the last two seasons, so it probably deserves some type of break this season. It gets one in the fact that the one CAA team it won't play is New Hampshire. Villanova won't play Massachusetts (picked eighth), William & Mary doesn't get Towson (10th), James Madison will miss Rhode Island (ninth), and Richmond and Maine (seventh) won't square off.

"It attests to how competitive our league is. You really can't take a week off," said Dino Vasso, New Hampshire's preseason all-conference cornerback. "There's really four or five teams that could win the whole thing (FCS title) every year."

"It's going to be a hard year with everything combined," added William & Mary preseason all-conference linebacker Jake Trantin, "so we're going to stay focused and really concentrate on each week."

Richmond defensive tackle Martin Parker, who will challenge for national defensive player of the year honors (The Sportsbook Betting Lines's Buck Buchanan Award, sponsored by Fathead.com), points out that Northeastern and Hofstra weren't gimmes on anybody's schedule. Their record last season just happened to reflect that they faced CAA teams week-in and week-out.

"If you put them in any other conference, they're probably tops in that conference," Parker said.

But not having those teams on the schedule could hurt a CAA team come playoff time. Perhaps one will have a 6-5 record instead of the 9-2 it could have in another conference. Perhaps one will make the playoffs, but be beaten up physically.

Delaware finished 15-1 and won the national title in 2003, but had to escape last-minute or overtime wins over Villanova, UMass, Maine and New Hampshire to get there.

"It's the nature of this conference," Delaware coach K.C. Keeler said. "And what you have to do is win the close games. Us losing that Richmond game (16-15) early in the season (last year) really, really killed us because it came back to bite us. We didn't get that seventh win or we'd have been in the playoffs."

"I think any of us, to get into the playoffs has the ability to win the whole thing," Talley said. "Last year, New Hampshire did, William & Mary certainly did, Richmond certainly did. The four of us would have had a chance to go depending on whether you had a home seed or didn't have a home seed or where you ended up playing somebody. If William & Mary played us at William & Mary, they probably would have beaten us."

The team that emerges the least damaged come the end of the regular season, on Nov. 20, will be a true champion, according to Mickey Matthews, the two-time Eddie Robinson Award (FCS coach of the year) at James Madison.

"I've looked at people's schedules down through the years, and whether it is a southern team or a northern team, you would see a team got a schedule break - who the crossover games were," Matthews said. "When I was at Georgia, it was that way. In the SEC, your crossover games many times determine how difficult your schedule was. That's the way we were, the three crossover games. Although we're still not all playing each other, it's going to be a more truer champion this way."

Of course, the extra grind of this season will relent a little in the coming seasons, with ODU and Georgia State pushing the CAA to 11 or 12 teams, with Rhode Island perhaps dropping out. That Rams' decision is likely to be made next month.

"It will change once the other two teams come in," Richmond coach Latrell Scott said. "That just makes it that much more competitive. I think it will be fun to have one champion."

CAA PRESEASON POLL (Head coaches and sports information directors)

1. Villanova (17 first-place votes)

2. William and Mary

3. New Hampshire (2)

4. James Madison

5. Delaware (1)

6. Richmond

7. Maine

8. Massachusetts

9. Rhode Island

10. Towson

PRESEASON CAA ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM

Offensive Player of the Year - Matt Szczur, WR, Villanova

Player of the Year - Terence Thomas, LB, Villanova

Offense

QB- Chris Whitney, Villanova. RB- John Griffin, Massachusetts; Jonathan Grimes, William & Mary. FB- Kendall Gaskins, Richmond. WR- Tre Gray, Richmond; Kevin Grayson, Richmond; Matt Szczur, Villanova. TE- Emil Igwenagu, Massachusetts. OL- Brant Clouser, Villanova; Keith Hill Jr., William & Mary; Ben Ijalana, Villanova; Drew Lachenmayer, Richmond; Theo Sherman, James Madison

Defense

DL- Ronnell Brown, James Madison; Yaky Ibia, Towson; Brian McNally, New Hampshire; Martin Parker, Richmond. LB- Tyler Holmes, Massachusetts; Eric McBride, Richmond; Terence Thomas, Villanova; Jake Trantin, William & Mary. S- Anthony Bratton, Delaware; John Dempsey, Villanova. CB- Justin Rogers, Richmond; Dino Vasso, New Hampshire

Special Teams

Return Specialist- Matt Szczur, Villanova. PK- Nick Yako, Villanova. P- David Miller, William & Mary

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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