Braves kick off road swing in Florida

Baseball Betting Lines

07/23/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves bring the National League's best record into Florida this evening when they kick off their nine-game road trip with the first of three games against the Marlins at Sun Life Stadium.

Atlanta just took two of three from the San Diego Padres to complete a seven- game homestand that saw it go 4-3. Still and all, the Braves lead the NL East by seven games over three-time defending division champion Philadelphia.

The Braves, though, did not gain any ground on the Phils on Thursday, but picked up a series win over the Padres nonetheless, as Tim Hudson tossed seven strong innings and Alex Gonzalez continued to swing a hot bat with a four-hit, two-RBI performance in the 8-0 win.

Hudson (10-5) shut down the Padres to the tune of four hits and one walk while fanning four.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, has hit safely in six of his seven games since coming to Atlanta in a trade with Toronto and made a pair of defensive gems behind Hudson Thursday, as the Braves took two of three in the series.

Jayson Heyward chipped in two hits and two RBI, while Chipper Jones went 3- for-5 with a run batted in.

Getting the call for the Braves tonight will be right-hander Derek Lowe, who is 10-8 with a 4.39 ERA. Lowe stopped a personal three-game losing streak and won for the first time in five starts on Sunday against Milwaukee, which managed three runs and eight hits in 5 1/3 frames.

Lowe is 6-4 lifetime against the Marlins with a 4.93 ERA in 17 games, 12 of which have been starts.

Florida, meanwhile, will counter with rookie right-hander Alex Sanabia, who is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA. Sanabia picked up his first big league win on Sunday against the Washington Nationals, as he scattered four hits over 5 1/3 innings. He had thrown 3 1/3 scoreless frames in his previous outing.

This will be the 21-year-old hurler's third start and first against Atlanta.

The Marlins come into tonight's tilt red hot after taking three of four from Colorado. On Thursday, Ronny Paulino knocked in the game-winning run in the bottom of the ninth to give the Marlins a 3-2 win.

Emilio Bonifacio tripled to deep center over the head of Dexter Fowler to start the inning, and Paulino promptly punched the game-winning hit to shallow right as the Marlins won for the fifth time in their last six tries.

Florida, though, sits nine back of the Braves in the division.

Josh Johnson continued his strong run despite receiving a no-decision, striking out 11 in 6 1/3 innings and yielding just one run on five hits with a single walk.

Leo Nunez (4-2) struck out the side in the top of the ninth and received the win, while Gaby Sanchez provided a pair of hits and drove in a run.

Atlanta has won four of its six matchups with the Marlins this season.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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