Blue Jays try to add to Orioles' misery

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Bautista may still not be a familiar name among many baseball fans, but the Baltimore Orioles know all too well how good the Toronto Blue Jays slugger has been this season.

The major league's leading home run hitter in 2010 will attempt to go deep for a fourth straight game tonight, while Bautista's Blue Jays take aim at yet another victory over the cellar-dwelling Orioles when the American League East foes wrap up a three-game series at the Rogers Centre.

Toronto moved to an astounding 11-0 against the Orioles this season by virtue of last night's 8-2 triumph, with Bautista homering twice and knocking in five runs as part of a 4-for-4 performance at the plate. The two long balls give the All-Star outfielder 30 on the season, and he's homered four times with nine RBI over the Jays' last three contests.

"Nothing different in my swing, just my approach has changed a little bit," said Bautista about his recent success. "I'm starting to get ready a little earlier in the at-bat."

Facing the Orioles has helped Bautista build his career-best numbers as well. In Toronto's 11 victories over Baltimore this season, the 29-year-old has hit .326 (14-for-43) with six homers and 15 RBI.

Vernon Wells chipped in a two-run double and both Fred Lewis and Yunel Escobar collected three hits to help Toronto prevail for the fourth time in its last five games overall. Starting pitcher Ricky Romero (8-7) turned in 7 2/3 effective innings as well, holding the O's to two runs and striking out eight Baltimore hitters.

Kevin Millwood wasn't nearly as effective for Baltimore, with the struggling veteran battered for six runs (five earned) on 10 hits over a 5 1/3-inning stint.

"I just didn't make very many good pitches and when you are swinging the bat as well as [Bautista] is, if you don't throw a good pitch, he's going to hit it hard," Millwood said.

Adam Jones went 3-for-4 for Baltimore, losers of four in a row and 10 of 12 since the All-Star break, while Nick Markakis had two hits and drove in a run.

Tuesday's setback was also the Orioles' 10th in a row at the Rogers Centre, where Baltimore has now lost in 15 of its last 16 visits.

With the Blue Jays in need of an extra starter due to having played a doubleheader on Sunday, the team will call up Brad Mills from Triple-A Las Vegas to pitch tonight's finale. The 25-year-old lefty made 16 starts for the 51s this season and compiled a 7-4 record with a 4.13 earned run average.

A fourth-round selection by Toronto in the 2007 draft, Mills did make a pair of starts for the Blue Jays last season, with both coming against the Philadelphia Phillies. The results weren't real good, as he was tagged for 12 runs and 14 hits -- including four homers -- over a 7 2/3-inning span while registering a loss and a no-decision.

He'll be opposed tonight by Jeremy Guthrie in what possibly could be the Baltimore hurler's final outing as an Oriole. Considered a potential candidate to be dealt prior to Saturday's trade deadline, the right-hander has helped his value with a pair of solid performances since the All-Star break.

One of those efforts came against the Blue Jays, with Guthrie limiting the Jays to a run and striking out six in a 6 2/3-inning no-decision on July 17. The 31-year-old followed up by yielding just two runs through seven frames to defeat Minnesota on Friday, finally putting an end to a personal two-month winless streak.

The former first-round pick was handed a loss at the Rogers Centre back on May 30 after being reached for four runs in six innings, and is just 2-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 13 career starts versus Toronto. Guthrie also has struggled on the road during his trying 2010 campaign, having produced a 1-5 record with a 5.01 ERA in 10 away appearances.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.

As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.

Bet 2010 Super Bowl Odds

The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.

Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).

But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.

Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.

Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:

Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2

New York Giants - 9 - 2

Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).

Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.

So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.

And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.

They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.

Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.

But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.

Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.

Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.

Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.

Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?

Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.

In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.

Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.

Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.

The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.

The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.

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