Arenas leads Wizards over T'Wolves

Basketball Betting Lines

02/21/2007 - Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gilbert Arenas poured in 38 points, and Washington never trailed in a 112-100 triumph over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Arenas was a miserable 1-of-8 from three-point range, but made up for the shortcoming by hitting on 11-of-16 inside the arc to go along with a 13-for-15 performance from the foul line.

DeShawn Stevenson came up with a season-best 23 points for the Southeast Division-leading Wizards, who have won back-to-back contests following a two- game skid. Washington beat Minnesota for just the third time in the last 11 meetings.

Caron Butler contributed 15 points and Andray Blatche tied a career-high with 12 rebounds for Washington.

Kevin Garnett had 26 points and 13 rebounds for Minnesota, which has dropped six of its last nine contests. Ricky Davis ended with 24 points and Mike James scored 20 for the Timberwolves.

It was a solid win for the Wizards in the first game after the All-Star break, even though the T'Wolves made a big run in the third to get close and were within six points late in the fourth.

Minnesota trailed 64-48 early in the third, but rallied and closed the gap to 72-68 following a Garnett turnaround jumper with 2:42 remaining in the quarter.

However, Washington widened its margin to 83-74 going into the fourth after Darius Songaila drilled a jumper at the buzzer. Arenas then hit a three and a jumper to start the fourth, but Minnesota managed to rally.

A pair of free throws by James capped a 6-1 spurt, drawing Minnesota within 104-98 with 1:47 remaining.

Antonio Daniels responded with a pair of free throws, and after a turnover and a missed shot by Davis, Blatche put the finishing touches on the victory with a layup inside of a minute left.

Mark Blount and Randy Foye each had 10 points for Minnesota.

Arenas' fadeaway shot capped six consecutive Washington points early for a 10-4 margin and Brendan Haywood's jump hook extended the lead to 19-10. It was 31-19 after 12 minutes and 57-44 a the half.

Game Notes

Minnesota has lost eight of its last 11 at Washington...The home team has won six straight meetings...This was the first of two meeting this season with another contest set for Minneapolis Sunday afternoon...Washington center Etan Thomas returned from a two-game suspension and had eight points and six boards...The Wizards went 3-of-16 from three-point range...Arenas is 8-for-51 on three-point tries this month.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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