AL West: Lee deal shakes up AL West

Baseball Betting Lines

07/13/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - We know this much is true about the Texas Rangers: on paper, they are a better ballclub than they were before Friday.

When the Rangers traded for Seattle Mariners' ace Cliff Lee, they effectively complemented their potent lineup with a bona fide horse, one who last year proved himself to be more than capable of handling a pressure-packed postseason workload.

Lee comes to a Rangers team that already holds a 4 1/2-game lead in the American League West. Rangers fans are still giddy enough about the acquisition to give Lee a mulligan for his Rangers debut Saturday against Baltimore, when he allowed six earned runs in nine innings. In fact, the whole team could use a mulligan after suffering a four-game sweep at home to the Orioles, owners of the worst record in the American League.

"Good time for a break. We need it," manager Ron Washington said. "Sometimes it's not the best team that wins, it's the team that plays the best."

Indeed, there figures to be plenty of days ahead when Texas will play the role of favorite. And with a few weeks remaining until the July 31 trade deadline, it will be interesting to see the trickle-down effect the Lee deal will have on division rivals Oakland and L.A.

Another thing to keep an eye on during the second half of the season is the budding Triple Crown race between the Rangers' Josh Hamilton and Detroit's Miguel Cabrera. Those two are tied for the Major League lead in batting average (.346) and are tied for second with 22 home runs apiece, behind Toronto's Jose Bautista with 24. Hamilton put himself into the mix with an insane month of June, when he hit .454 with nine home runs and 31 RBI. Cabrera has the edge with a Major League-best 77 RBI, while Hamilton ranks fourth with 64. But if anybody can produce runs in bunches, it's Hamilton, as he proved in 2008 with a league-high 130 RBI and 331 total bases.

The question is, will he be able to pick up right where he left off coming out of the break?

Another storyline worth watching will be Lee's impact on the rest of the rotation. Texas has already gotten healthy contribution from starters C.J. Wilson (7-5, 3.35) and Colby Lewis (8-5, 3.33). Can they continue to pitch effectively under Lee's shadow? According to Fox Sports Southwest, Lee's debut was the most watched television program in the Dallas-Fort Worth area on Saturday, doubling the team's average Nielsen household rating this season.

Even with a new-look rotation, the offense will continue to garner the most attention. Hamilton and Vladimir Guerrero are having tremendous rebound seasons. Ian Kinsler is hitting .310 and is on pace to shatter his career-high in walks despite missing the first month of the season with a high ankle sprain.

Then, there is the pending sale of the team which has been an ongoing soap opera in the Fort Worth area. On Monday, team president Nolan Ryan sued his own ballclub for 'derailing' the deal and asked a bankruptcy judge to approve the sale.

While that drama continues to unfold, the Rangers will open the second half armed with a shiny new toy atop the starting rotation, and looking to build on their division lead.

ANGELS SPUTTER INTO ALL-STAR BREAK

While the first-place Rangers were suffering an improbable sweep to close out the season's unofficial first half, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were doing a nosedive of their own. Rather than seize the opportunity to gain some ground, the Angels flatlined, as they've now lost eight of their last 10.

All told, things could be worse. Prior to that 10-game stretch, the Angels were 3 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West. Now, they are 4 1/2 games back, thanks to the Rangers dropping seven of their last 10. For now, chalk it up to good fortune for the Halos. However, another stretch of that magnitude could very well drop them into a hole too deep to climb out.

This marks the first time since 2006 that L.A. is not in first place at the All-Star break. It's no question the team has missed the presence of first baseman Kendry Morales, who was in the midst of a big season before breaking his leg during a walk-off home run celebration in late-May. Manager Mike Scioscia has confirmed the Angels are looking to add another bat, but not to rent a player for the remainder of the season.

"We know that one person is not going to fill Kendry Morales' shoes and what he brings to the team," Scioscia told the team's website. "He's the one hitter in the middle of our lineup that really makes everyone around him better. I think that speaks volume to his talents. That being said, I think that our offensive lineup -- if people can play to their capabilities -- will be deep enough for us to absorb a lot of that and to give ourselves an opportunity to score runs and support what we think is a good pitching staff."

WHAT NOW FOR THE MARINERS?

When the Seattle Mariners dealt Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers on Friday, general manager Jack Zduriencik all but threw in the towel on the 2010 season. Among the most disappointing teams during the first half of the season, the Mariners have to be at or near the top.

When you look back at the expectations following a flurry of offseason moves, to where Seattle (35-53) is now, 15 games back in the division, it's a sobering reality of just how far the team has strayed from its intended path. And now, the ace is gone, and plenty of questions remain.

At the forefront of those questions is, what exactly did the team get in return for its departed ace?

In addition to receiving three prospects from Texas, the key to the deal was 23-year-old first baseman Justin Smoak, who came through the Rangers' minor league system with such high hopes. But he struggled in his first taste of big league action, hitting .209 in 70 games with the Rangers. Initial reports on Friday had a deal in place for Seattle to land Yankees prized catching prospect Jesus Montero, among others. However, that deal ultimately fell through, and Zduriencik acted quickly on Plan B when the Rangers changed their mind on dealing Smoak.

Still, Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu is preaching patience with the youngster, who went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his Seattle debut.

"I keep trying to get people to understand, this kid is just starting his career, really," Wakamatsu said. "To be traded and come over with the expectations and all those things, he's got to work some things out. We've seen him, and I've seen him. He's awfully impressive, but we're going to have to be patient with him."

A'S STILL IN THE HUNT

Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane does not have a reputation for making blockbuster deals at the trade deadline to improve his ballclub. Despite the fact that his team is a manageable 7 1/2 games back of the Rangers, who so far have made the biggest splash of the trading season, the rumor mill has been pin drop-quiet regarding any potential deals involving the A's.

Oakland boasts the AL's third-ranked team ERA (3.85) thanks in part to All- Stars Trevor Cahill (9-3, 2.94) and Andrew Bailey (1.70, 18 SV). That said, if Beane were to make a deal before the trade deadline, at the top of his wish list would have to be one word: power.

The A's rank last in the majors with 57 home runs, and that's even with four home runs in a pair of wins over the Angels this weekend. Prior to blasting three homers against the Angels' Scott Kazmir on Saturday night, Oakland had gone 23 straight games without a multi-homer game.

According to manager Bob Geren, we should be seeing more long balls in the second half, regardless of what Beane does or does not do at the trade deadline.

"I'm trying to think who's below their career norm at this point," Geren told the Oakland Tribune. "(Kurt) Suzuki has 10, so he's pretty much on pace. (Kevin Kouzmanoff) will probably hit more in the second half than he did in the first half (8). Same thing with (Mark) Ellis, and you know Jack (Cust) will, too."

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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