AL West: Angels hoping to make up ground

Baseball Betting Lines

05/18/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - As we near the quarter-post of the Major League Baseball season, it's usually a good tipping point to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Although some may start slow, the true contenders won't be held down for long. Likewise, some of the weaker teams who start out hot will eventually come back down to Earth.

Fortunately for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (18-22), the American League West is still anybody's division. And entering play Monday, they had gained three games on first-place Texas in a span of three days. They were able to do so thanks to a three-game sweep over the Oakland Athletics at home this past weekend. Equally as important as the ground they made up, was the revival of a starting rotation that has been anything but consistent.

On Friday, Joe Saunders tossed a four-hit shutout to outlast A's starter Dallas Braden and pick up his second win of the season. In Sunday's series finale, Joel Piniero also pitched a four-hit shutout to lead the Angels to another 4-0 win. And in between those gems, Ervin Santana allowed only two earned runs in six innings during Saturday's 12-3 rout, striking out six along the way.

Now, the team will try to solve its road woes as it embarks on a seven-game road trip this week, with stops in Texas, Chicago and St. Louis. But so far that trip has started with more of the same -- a 4-3 loss to former slugger Vladimir Guerrero and the Texas Rangers on Monday night.

Guerrero went 2-for-4 in his first game against his former squad. On the season, the 35-year-old designated hitter is batting .340 with 31 RBI -- both figures which are among the Major League leaders. Of course, had he put up those kinds of numbers last year in Anaheim, he likely would've received a suitable offer to stay put.

"I wasn't healthy (last year)," Guerrero told The Orange County Register. "Unfortunately, I had no time to work out on my knees and shoulder because I had surgery the year before. It was a struggle."

Without question, if the Angels are to tackle their problems on the road during this trip, the starting rotation must continue to deliver. At the very least, things are headed in the right direction.

Through the first 30 games of the season, the Angels starters had combined for a robust 5.59 ERA. In the 10 games since, they've posted a 2.03 ERA.

All told, the Angels entered Tuesday just 3 1/2 games off the pace in the division.

RANGERS ENJOYING HOME COOKING

Of all the AL West squads, the Angels aren't alone in their struggles on the road (6-11). Oakland is just 5-13 away from home, while the Texas Rangers are 7-11 in opposing ballparks. However, the difference is that Oakland and Texas are both 14-7 at home.

With Monday's 4-3 win over L.A., the Rangers improved to 7-1 at home so far in the month of May. Meanwhile, they've lost their last five road games. Texas will continue its homestand with another tilt against Angels tonight, followed by a two-game set with Baltimore and then a three-game interleague series with the Chicago Cubs this weekend.

Considering none of those teams are above .500, the Rangers could be in line to create some separation in the division if they continue to take care of business at home.

A'S ROTATION FACING A POTENTIALLY HUGE LOSS IN DUCHSCHERER

A's right-hander Justin Duchscherer has seen his promising career become sidetracked by both physical and mental ailments, and the latest setback is threatening his 2010 season.

Duchscherer, who missed all of last season after undergoing elbow surgery and later fighting clinical depression, will find out this week if he needs season-ending hip surgery. In a report on the team's website, Duchscherer said that he has a femoroacetabular impingement, caused by the hip ball and socket rubbing together and creating friction. He'll soon meet with orthopedist Thomas Byrd in Nashville to determine whether he'll need surgery. The recovery timetable for such a procedure is generally 4-6 months.

Duchscherer had been scheduled to return from the disabled list and start Saturday's game against the Angels, but he wound up being a game-time scratch. By Sunday, he was back on the disabled list.

"My goal is to try to do whatever I can so that I can pitch this year, and then at the end of the season have it addressed," Duchscherer said. "But sometimes what we want and what actually happens doesn't coincide."

Through five starts this season, he had gone 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA before his bothersome hip landed him on the DL May 7.

STILL NO SIGNS OF LIFE FOR M'S OFFENSE

By now, it's looking more and more likely that the Seattle Mariners' (14-24) offense may never recover from its early-season slump, which is reaching historic proportions. Seattle continues to rank at the bottom of the league in virtually every offensive category.

Remarkably, the team has been held scoreless during the first three innings of every game since May 1, which is a span of 10 games. Let that stat marinate for a second -- it's basically the equivalent of letting the other team bat and playing only defense until the fourth inning.

So with that, the onus becomes even greater on the starting rotation to put up as many zeroes as possible. Cliff Lee has certainly done his part, having posted a 2.08 ERA with 25 strikeouts and only one walk in his four starts. Doug Fister (3-1, 1.72) and Jason Vargas (3-2, 2.93) have also impressed. Felix Hernandez had allowed 13 runs over his previous two starts, before holding Baltimore to one run over seven innings last Thursday.

The Mariners are hoping he can build on that when he opposes Ben Sheets tonight in Oakland. If not, and the offense continues to stumble, things are bound to get ugly quick in Seattle.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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American Idol odds : Blake Lewis the Early Standout

An important American Idol betting lines recap from February 20 Guys episode. The 12 men came out flat overall with Blake Lewis appearing to have the early edge after the first hour and a half.

Rudy - was quite good singing "Free Ride" to start off.  Randy was not impressed though.  Paula thought he started off fantastic.  "Never had anyone stop off so lively" said Paula but Simon (who does not like Rudy) does not feel he has a distinct voice and was not impressed either. 

Brandon was a little pitchy according to Randy and Paula agreed.  Simon said he was a good singer but the song was "too safe" and he needs to make an impact.  He was listed at +1200 odds or $1200 paid out on a $100 bet should he win the competition. 

Big favorite Sundance came in with a flat version of "Knights in White Satin" and the judges let him have it, including Paula.  Randy claimed the song was out of pitch throughout.

Korean American - and a Jenny Woo favorite - Paul Kim was up next.  Another pitchy flat one but Randy said he still liked his potential.  Kim at +3000 odds was said to have sung a "third rate version of that (George Michael) song" according to Simon Cowell.  He sang "Careless Whisper".

22 year old Chris Richardson was up next.  He was listed with +1100 odds coming in.  He got the best response from the judges though Simon did not believe the vocal was that great. 

Nick was boring and pitchy.  Simon didn't think he was that bad though and predicted he would be back next week.  Nick Pedro was a big +3000 dog coming into this competition. 

Beat boxer Blake Lewis was listed with early +1000 odds or $1000 payout on a $100 bet if he were to become the next American Idol winner odds .  These of course were the early odds.  He was considered original for picking an "odd song".  He did not beat box and the judges felt it was the best vocal of the night. 

Sanjaya came in as the second biggest favorite after Chris Sligh but his performance Tuesday night was not very good. 

Chris Sleigh was the early favorite at +450 odds.  Great voice and a great sense of humor.  He's a real standout.  Randy felt it was on point but maybe ahead of the chorus a little bit.  Simon Cowell said he felt like he was in some "sort of weird student gig". 

Jared Cotter followed.  He was listed with +2000 odds early on to win the competition.  The judges felt he needs to take more risks but looked good. 

22-year old AJ Talbado, who has tried out for American Idol five times, was up next.  "Kind of a theme park performance" said Simon.  Though the judges felt he performed okay.  Simon did feel AJ might be better than he originally thought.

Phil - this season's military favorite - came into this competition with +1200 odds to win the competition.  He was the last to perform.  He was certainly strong enough to get through this stage of the competition and perhaps the best one after a shaky start. 

Tomorrow night, the ladies perform and I sure hope they do a better job than the boys.  Check out all the American Idol betting odds here.

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